Currency Market Updates 26 Oct

 Globally, equity markets remained poised as US politicians continue to reduce their difference over the fiscal package. Dow Jones closed slightly in red 0.1% lower. Markets are likely to shift focus from fiscal package to US election outcome given we are just a week away from polling day. The price action in EUR/USD pair remained bullish as pair rebound to 1.1840 levels after testing a low 1.1785 on Friday. The gains in EUR/USD were further supported by the release of improved manufacturing PMI data from Germany and Euro area 58 & 54.4 respectively. Technically, EUR/USD pair has support near 1.18-1.1820 on a closing basis and resistance near 1.1860-1.1880 levels.

On domestic front, Nifty is trading flat near 11900 levels and 10-year bond yield is trading at 5.84%. Last week, despite broader dollar weakness USDINR pair gained amid continued buying by RBI, which led FX reserves surge to $555 bn mark. Technically, USDINR pair has witnessed triangle pattern break-out at 73.50 levels on 4-hour time frame. USDINR pair is likely to trade with bullish bias with support near 73.50-55 level and resistance near 73.90 levels if broken can test 74.10 levels.

Currency Market Updates: 21 Oct

Globally, Risk sentiment remained elevated as US politician continued to deliberate over the stimulus package. Dow Jones closed in green nearly 0.4% above the previous close. Given, we are just two weeks away from the Nov-3(US election date) any package would be more about the political picture than economic outlook. Moreover, markets are quite optimistic about the package any deviation from the expected lines could lead to sudden risk-off moves.

The EUR/USD pair has surged nearly 150 pips from lows of 1.701 levels. The sharp gains in Euro can be attributed to decent Chinese economic data and optimism over US economic package. Given the lack of economic data from EU, Euro is likely to be driven from the outcome of US economic package. Technically, the EUR/USD pair is trading near upper Bollinger band at 1.1845 levels. EUR/USD pair has significant resistance near 1.1855-60 levels, a break of which might lead the pair to 1.19 levels. EUR/USD pair has support near 1.1780 levels.

On the domestic front, Nifty is likely to retest key resistance at 12025 levels as it tracks global peers. On the currency front, Yesterday, USDINR pair had spiked to 73.535 amid strong buying interest from national banks. Strong buying interest from national banks has kept rupee appreciation under check despite a significant rally in Chinese yuan and weakness in US dollar index. Technically, USDINR pair has key support near 73.25 levels and strong resistance near 73.60 levels