Can we predict World Cup – Semi-finalist?

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." --Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

ICC has overhauled the 2019 world cup format. Unlike previous world-cups, where teams were distributed in different groups, this world cup will witness a round robin format. As each team plays all other 9 teams, there would be far more first stage matches. This change will be beneficial for consistent teams (Like India & Australia) and night-mare for inconsistent teams (like Bangladesh, Pakistan). To put in simple words, In-previous world cup format, even a single upset ODI could mean end of road for good teams and a miracle for inconsistent teams. (Remember India crashing out in 2007)*

Problem Statement: Can we predict World Cup Semi-Finalist?

This blog will try to predict the Top-4 Semi-Finalist, at various stages (After first 10 matches than interval of 5 matches) of world cup. It will also use rejection approach - where-in the blog will suggest team, which are very less likely to quality.  The basic premise is the current world cup format should reward only consistent teams, more-over one or two up-set will not be enough to qualify. For example- Bangladesh has able to beat South Africa in their first game. By any definition it was an upset, but this does not necessarily means Bangladesh will definitely qualify for semi-final. Being relatively weak team Bangladesh need to consistently beat higher rank team to have any chance of reaching semi-final. Else, it may spoil party for other but its own prospect will remain in limbo!

Smart Rank Table:

This blog will also publish the smart rank table at various stages of world cup. The smart rank table will include result till date and plausible result of remaining matches thus predicting the final picture of points table. This projection will be done on premise of momentum of team performances.